Trade ideas

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.

GBP/USD may stage additional attempts to test the May low (1.2446) as a bear-flag formation appears to be taking shape.

Australian Dollar is poised for a breakout with AUD/USD coiling just above support near the yearly lows. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

The US Dollar finally pulled back from its aggressive Q4 breakout move, and this was fueled by the strongest weekly outing in EUR/USD in two years with last week’s bounce.

USD/CHF may defend the rally following the US election should it track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8692).

Euro rallied 2.5% off the yearly low with EUR/USD carving the December opening-range just below a key pivot zone. Battlelines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

The EUR/JPY is our featured technical chart, for not only a technical breakdown is looking increasingly likely, but the macro back backdrop makes for a bearish fundamental backdrop. In short, the euro is undermined because of Europe’s persistent economic and political challenges, while a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan magnifies the yen's appeal. Against this backdrop, our short-term EUR/JPY forecast is bearish.

Risk sentiment and rate differentials are dictating directional risks for USD/NOK and NOK/JPY. With weakening ties to US rates and oil, and carry trade flows dominating NOK/JPY, we look at setups as we head toward year-end.

While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.

I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.